The Ukraine war is on the brink of a dangerous escalation. Both Kyiv and Moscow are raising the stakes, following a strategy reminiscent of Cold War brinkmanship. The goal? Force the other side to blink first.
Biden Greenlights Long-Range Missile Strikes
In a bold move, U.S. President Joe Biden approved Ukraine’s use of American ATACMS missiles to target Russian territory. Kyiv quickly acted, firing six missiles at a facility in Bryansk, well beyond the front lines. While Russia claims to have intercepted most of the missiles, the attack marks a significant escalation.
Zelensky was cryptic but confident, stating:
“We now have long-range capabilities, and we will not hesitate to use them.”
Russia’s Nuclear Redline Moves
Putin responded by lowering the bar for nuclear weapon use. Under a newly revised doctrine, Russia can now deploy nuclear weapons in response to major conventional attacks, not just nuclear threats. The announcement drew sharp criticism from Western leaders, with NATO warning of the growing danger of nuclear miscalculation.
Despite the rhetoric, experts note that tactical nuclear weapons—smaller, battlefield-ready arms—remain a real possibility if the conflict intensifies further.
Biden’s Lame-Duck Strategy
With his presidency nearing its end, Biden is pulling out all the stops. This week, the U.S. approved shipments of landmines to Ukraine to slow Russian advances in the east. The move has sparked controversy, as these weapons pose significant risks to civilians.
Trump’s allies have lambasted Biden’s decisions, accusing him of prolonging the conflict unnecessarily. The incoming Trump administration is expected to push for a negotiated settlement, leaving Biden little time to shore up Ukraine’s position.
The Global Picture: Erosion of Support
At the G20 summit in Brazil, cracks in global solidarity were on full display. The summit’s final declaration avoided criticizing Russia directly and dropped key anti-war language. Europe, too, faces mounting pressure, with economic strains and Russian hybrid warfare, such as recent undersea cable sabotage in the Baltic Sea, testing their resolve.
What Lies Ahead?
The war’s next phase hinges on two factors:
- European Backbone: Will European nations stand firm, or will Russian pressure tactics succeed in weakening their resolve?
- Zelensky’s Gambit: Facing the prospect of Trump’s negotiated peace, Zelensky may escalate further to gain leverage before talks begin.
With both sides aiming to secure an upper hand by 2025, the coming weeks promise heightened tensions and significant risks. Whether this marks the beginning of the war’s end—or its darkest chapter—remains uncertain
